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Interpretation of the Maritime Silk Road Trade Index in June 2020: Both imports and exports are grow

Release time: 2020-11-04

Number of visits: 140

Interpretation of the Maritime Silk Road Trade Index in June 2020: Both imports and exports are grow

  In June 2020, the Maritime Silk Road Trade Index released by the Ningbo Shipping Exchange is as follows: The import and export trade index was 133.14 points, an increase of 8.56% month-on-month and an increase of 1.61% year-on-year; the export trade index was 148.07 points, an increase of 3.27% month-on-year, and an increase year-on-year 0.35%; the import trade index was 117.95 points, up 16.17% month-on-month and 3.27% year-on-year.

  In June, my country’s total import and export volume was 2.69 trillion yuan (RMB denominated, the same below), a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, of which exports were 1.51 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, and imports were 1.18 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. Since 2020, for the first time in June, both imports and exports have achieved positive growth. From January to June, my country's total import and export of goods trade was 14.24 trillion yuan, down 3.2% year-on-year, and the rate of decline narrowed by 1.7 percentage points compared with the previous five months. Among them, exports were 7.71 trillion yuan, down 3%; imports were 6.53 trillion yuan, down 3.3%. On a monthly basis, exports have achieved positive growth for three consecutive months since April.

  In the first half of the year, my country’s export trade structure was further optimized. As the largest foreign trade business entity, the import and export of private enterprises was 6.42 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, accounting for 45.1% of my country's total foreign trade value, an increase of 3.5 percentage points over the same period last year. At the same time, the proportion of trade in the central and western regions continued to rise. The import and export of my country's central and western regions was 2.38 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.7%, accounting for 16.7% of my country's total foreign trade value, an increase of 1.4%; the eastern region's foreign trade imports and exports were 11.39 trillion yuan, a decrease of 4.7%.

  From a regional perspective, my country’s exports to ASEAN, EU, and Japan increased by 3.3%, 1.9% and 0.1% year-on-year respectively in the first half of the year; exports to India fell by 23% year-on-year. This is related to India’s various boycott measures against Chinese products. . In the first half of the year, exports to the United States fell by 8% year-on-year, but in June they increased by 5.1% year-on-year, showing a recovery growth. It is worth noting that in the second quarter, my country’s exports to the United States (up 5.1% year-on-year), the European Union (up 16.7% year-on-year), ASEAN (up 4.3% year-on-year), Japan (up 14.9% year-on-year), South Korea (up 4.4% year-on-year), etc. Both showed positive growth, making my country's total exports in the second quarter increased by 4.5% year-on-year. In addition, in the first half of the year, my country’s imports and exports to areas along the “Belt and Road” were 4.2 trillion yuan, a slight drop of 0.9%, which was 2.3 percentage points lower than the overall trade decline, indicating that my country’s trade with the “Belt and Road” regions has a strong resilience. .

  From the perspective of export commodity categories, in the first half of the year, the export of textiles including masks increased by 32.4%, the export of medicines and medical equipment increased by 23.6% and 46.4%, and the export of notebook computers and mobile phones increased by 9.1% and 0.2% respectively. In the same period, my country’s exports of mechanical and electrical products were 4.52 trillion yuan, a drop of 2.3%, accounting for 58.6% of the total export value; the exports of seven types of labor-intensive products such as textiles and clothing were 1.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.4%, accounting for 19.4%.

  In terms of imports, the import volume of coal, crude oil, natural gas, and copper ore in the first half of the year increased by 12.7%, 9.9%, 3.3%, and 3.0%, respectively, but the import prices fell by 6.3%, 27.8%, 15.6%, and 3.5% respectively. The reason was The global market's demand for commodities continues to be weak. In particular, in June, my country’s imports of iron ore, crude oil, copper, and steel increased significantly year-on-year, while imports of iron ore, crude oil, steel, copper, and soybeans increased by 35.35%, 34.36%, 99.79%, 98.93%, 71.43, respectively. %, but because international commodity prices are running at a low level, the growth of imports is much smaller than that of imports. For example, crude oil imports in June increased by 34.36% year-on-year, but the amount of imports fell instead of rising. In addition, the import volume of integrated circuits in June increased by 18.64% year-on-year, driving the import growth rate by 3.07 percentage points. During the implementation of the Sino-US Trade Agreement, my country’s imports of agricultural products from the United States increased significantly, of which grain and soybean imports increased by 79.5% and 71.4% year-on-year.

  In June, my country’s manufacturing PMI was 50.9, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from May, and it continued to rise by 0.2 to 51.1 in July. In foreign countries, the US manufacturing PMI was 52.6, an increase of 9.5 month-on-month; Japan was 40.1, an increase of 1.7 month-on-month; Germany was 45.2, an increase of 8.6; France was 52.3, an increase of 11.7; Britain was 50.1, an increase of 9.4; Russia was 49.4, an increase of 13.2; India was 47.2, up 16.4; Brazil was 51.6, up 13.3. It can be seen that the manufacturing PMI of major economies has rebounded. The United States, France, the United Kingdom, and Brazil are already above 50, indicating that there are obvious signs of economic recovery in June compared to May, which is conducive to the recovery of global trade.

  In June, the "17+1" import and export trade index, which measures my country's trade with Central and Eastern Europe, closed at 208.67 points, an increase of 8.00% month-on-month and 2.51% year-on-year; the export trade index closed at 229.07 points, an increase of 0.01% month-on-year and a year-on-year increase. 6.20%; The import trade index closed at 164.15 points, up 42.78% month-on-month and down 7.31% year-on-year. In order to further support the development of foreign trade, the General Administration of Customs will carry out cross-border e-commerce B2B export pilots in 10 customs offices in Beijing, Tianjin, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Xiamen, Zhengzhou, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Huangpu starting from July 1. The joint mediation rules also came into effect on July 1, and my country's trade with Europe has been further regulated. On the whole, my country's foreign trade in the second quarter improved significantly compared to the first quarter, and the scale of import and export trade in July is expected to be further expanded on the basis of June.