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Interpretation of the future development trend of Shanghai import and export agency

Release time: 2020-11-03

Number of visits: 133

Interpretation of the future development trend of Shanghai import and export agency

  According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, my country’s US dollar exports in April increased by 3.5% year-on-year, an increase of 10.1 percentage points over March. The value of imports in US dollars in April fell by 14.2% year-on-year, which was 13.2 percentage points larger than in March. Due to strong monthly exports and weak imports, the trade surplus in April was US$45.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of nearly 2.5 times.

  In terms of exports, the Shanghai import and export agency, after the outbreak of overseas epidemics, the continuous repair of domestic suppliers and the increase in demand for epidemic prevention materials should be the main reasons for the rebound in export growth in the past two months. From a horizontal perspective, the export growth rates of South Korea and Taiwan have been consistent with my country's export growth rates for a long time, but there has been a significant deviation since this year. From January to February this year, China’s exports fell by 17.2% year-on-year. South Korea and Taiwan's exports grew moderately in February. It can stay positive. In March, the year-on-year decline in Chinese exports narrowed to 6.6%, while South Korea and Taiwan saw slight negative growth. In April, China’s export growth rate turned positive, Taiwan’s data has not yet been released, and South Korea’s export growth rate dropped sharply to -24.3%. We believe that the spread of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic in developed countries in Europe and the United States will put a lot of pressure on the exports of East Asian economies. This has been reflected in the decline in the export growth of South Korea and Taiwan since March, but since March The relative improvement in the growth rate of China's exports mainly reflects the continuous repair of domestic suppliers and the highlights of the export order structure. The country has entered a strict lock-up phase in late January. The domestic epidemic was brought under control in February, and the closure measures were gradually cancelled in March. From the perspective of PMI's new export order index, it was still 48.7 in January, and fell sharply to 28.7 in February. The month clearly rebounded to 46.4. This means that the backlog of export orders from January to February began in March, and this trend continued until April. The outbreak of overseas epidemic prevention material demand was timely matched with the repair process of domestic suppliers. This can also be confirmed in the export classification data. In April, the year-on-year growth rate of exports of textiles (including masks and protective clothing) increased sharply from -6.3% in March to 49.4%, and the year-on-year growth rate of medical equipment also increased from March. 2.0% rose sharply to 50.3%, while exports to the United States rebounded to 2.2% in April, and the growth rate of exports to the EU rebounded to -4.5%.

  The drop in import growth of Shanghai import and export agents in April reflects both demand and price reasons. From the perspective of domestic industrial production, social retail and fixed asset investment in April, the fundamentals of the domestic economy showed a strong supply and demand pattern. Domestic demand for infrastructure and real estate investment in the upstream and midstream is relatively strong, while consumer demand in the midstream and downstream is relatively weak. Among imported commodities in April, except for crude oil imports, imports of natural gas, copper, coal, iron ore and steel all maintained positive growth. According to the announcement of the General Administration of Customs, this year includes fruits, edible oil and refined oil. Imports of consumer goods including logs, automobiles and accessories, and LCD panels declined year-on-year. The differences in the types of imported goods are consistent with the structural differences in domestic demand. The decline in import growth is only the result of relatively weak domestic demand, rather than new evidence.